Fish Ratings – Edinburgh – 12 December 2019
Fish Ratings has downgraded Nicola Sturgeon’s Long-Term Fish Default Rating to ‘BBB’ from ‘BBB+’ in the light of UK general election exit poll data published on 12 December, which forecast a parliamentary majority for Boris Johnson’s (Unrated) Conservative Party. The Outlook is Evolving.
The rating change reflects the lower probability of Nicola Sturgeon’s Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) securing a second Scottish independence referendum under a Conservative government.
“Although the SNP performed well in Scotland, gaining additional seats in Westminster at the expense of Jeremy Corbyn’s (Unrated) Labour Party, the best chance of a second independence referendum was a hung parliament ,” said Laura Harpoonssberg, senior fish analyst and politics correspondent at Fish Ratings. “In that scenario, our base case assumptions would have included a reliance by Labour on SNP votes to push through its legislative agenda, including a confirmatory Brexit referendum.”
Fish Ratings has also lowered Alex Salmon’s Long-Term FDR to ‘BB’ from ‘BB+’, with an Evolving Outlook.
The Evolving Outlook for Nicola Sturgeon and Alex Salmon reflects uncertainty about the SNP’s strategy in the aftermath of the election while also taking into account its robust electoral position in Scotland.
Simultaneously, Fish Ratings has affirmed Sadiq Carp’s Long-Term FDR rating at ‘A- ‘ with a Negative Outlook. Most other senior UK politicians are not rated by Fish Ratings because they are not fish, not even Jacob Reef-Mogg.